Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

In this study, we systematically analyze the magnitude and drivers of election-related smartphone consumption, using novel data on the content people observed on their phones during the 2024 U.S. election campaign.

Study ID sspp-2025-0050-v1
Authors Guy Aridor, Tevel Dekel, Rafael Jimenez Duran, Ro'ee Levy, Lena Song
Discipline Economics, Political Science
Field American Politics, Political Economy
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Dec. 11, 2025


Citation
Aridor, Guy, Dekel, Tevel, Duran, Rafael Jimenez, Levy, Ro'ee, and Lena Song. 2025. "Digital News Consumption: Evidence from Smartphone Content in the 2024 US Elections." Social Science Prediction Platform. November 11. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/0ac28d



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Abstract

We experimentally study the effects of different types of comparison points.

Study ID sspp-2025-0043-v1
Authors Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke
Discipline Economics
Field Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Nov. 15, 2025


Citation
Graeber, Thomas, and Benjamin Enke. 2025. "Predicting the Effects of Comparison Points." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 1. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/x6a26z

Abstract

We are conducting a study to understand the estimated economic impacts of university-affiliated research parks. Your participation in this survey will help us gather anonymous information on the perceived influence such research parks might have on innovation, employment, and other economic outcomes.

Study ID sspp-2025-0034-v1
Authors Mihai Codreanu
Discipline Economics
Field Labor Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Oct. 31, 2025


Citation
Mihai Codreanu. 2025. "The Economic Impact of University Research Parks." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 15. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/fey8zx

Abstract

We conducted a large-scale field experiment in Finland that advanced the start of mandatory preschool by one year. The RCT is authorized under temporary legislation and will inform an active policy decision by the Finnish government. Forecasters are randomly assigned a counterfactual (home care or other center-based care) and asked to predict effects relative to that benchmark.

Study ID sspp-2025-0042-v1
Authors Ramin Izadi, Julia Kuusiholma-Linnanmäki, Marja-Kristiina Lerkkanen, Matti Sarvimäki, Mimmu Sulkanen
Discipline Economics, Psychology, Public Policy
Field Economics Of Education, Experimental Economics, Developmental Psychology, Public Policy
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Oct. 15, 2025


Citation
Izadi, Ramin, Kuusiholma-Linnanmäki, Julia, Lerkkanen, Marja-Kristiina, Sarvimäki, Matti, and Mimmu Sulkanen. 2025. "Does an extra year of preschool improve academic and socioemotional skills?." Social Science Prediction Platform. September 16. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/bxyzx2

Abstract

We are soliciting expert predictions about a project analyzing the pass-through and incidence of Value Added Tax (VAT) exemptions on food in a low-income setting with very high levels of informality. We draw on detailed administrative data, a panel of nationally representative phone surveys, data scraped from supermarket websites, and direct observation of food prices across all supermarkets in the largest city in Papua New Guinea.

Study ID sspp-2025-0031-v1
Authors Christopher Hoy, Matias Strehl Pessina, Maholopa Laveil, Darian Naidoo
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Industrial Organization, Public Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Sept. 30, 2025


Citation
Hoy, Christopher, Pessina, Matias Strehl, Laveil, Maholopa, and Darian Naidoo. 2025. "Informality, Incidence, and Pass-through of VAT Exemptions." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 1. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/ydx2b4



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